Especialización en Estadística Aplicada

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http://hdl.handle.net/11371/6011

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  • Miniatura
    Ítem
    Modelo de pronosticó para la estimación de costos semanales de importación marítima de bases para la producción de lubricantes en Colombia desde las Américas mediante un modelo SARIMA
    (Fundación Universitaria Los Libertadores. Sede Bogotá., ) Osorio Castañeda, Cristhian Camilo; Niño Gutiérrez, Sindy Carolina
    The main objective of this study is to analyze and predict CIF import prices (Cost, Insurance and Freight) weekly from the bases for the production of lubricants in Colombia from the Americas. It seeks to evaluate historical import price trends and use time series models for forecasting. The SEMMA (Sample, Explore, Modify, Model, Assess) methodology was used for data analysis. The data used were obtained from the Treid platform, which provides information on imports. were explored and transformed the data, and certain characteristics were identified, such as the repetition of dates and the lack of records in some days. Modifications were made to the data, filtering the information and calculating the weekly average of CIF values. A time series with a positive trend was obtained. Based on these analyses, a a SARIMA predictive model eliminating seasonal and non-stationary behavior, for a seasonal series with s periods in time to predict weekly CIF import prices. The results of this study provide a vision of the behavior of the import prices of bases for lubricants in Colombia, which which is of great importance for decision making in the industry. It is concluded that this methodological approach innovative can contribute to a better understanding and management of CIF import prices for the bases for lubricants, making it possible to adjust strategies and increase participation in the national lubricants market.
  • Miniatura
    Ítem
    Diagnóstico de la Población Recicladora Independiente del Municipio de Pasto, a partir de Técnicas de Aprendizaje Supervisado
    (Fundación Universitaria Los Libertadores. Sede Bogotá., ) Carlosama Ruales, Yana Stefhania; González Veloza1, José John Fredy
    Historically, in Colombia the recycling population has carried out waste recovery activities usable under precarious working conditions and systematic restrictions and prohibitions by the State, which has generated a constant struggle by the Recycling Guild, who have seen in the associated work the only answer to defend your rights. Therefore, it is necessary to understand why almost half of the recycling population of the municipality of Pasto is not associated with a recycling organization, taking into account its advantages, such as being providers of the public cleaning service and thus receiving the usage fee. Therefore, The objective of this research is to identify the socioeconomic conditions of non-associated recyclers that can explain their lack of interest in organizing. For this, the data obtained in the diagnosis of gender of the recycling population of Pasto 2021, various models were trained under the learning techniques supervised selecting the LGBM method (Light Gradient Boosting Machine), for presenting the best metrics of performance in the task of predicting the conditions of the non-associated recycler population; for processing data, data cleaning, transformation of some variables, and simple data imputation were performed. null, finally the training and test data were separated. According to the results produced by the This model would have to start working with recyclers who have been in the trade for the longest years, because for them the recycling is only a subsistence activity and not the basis of its economy.
  • Miniatura
    Ítem
    Análisis con Machine Learning de Peticiones Externas (PQRS) del Servicio Nacional de Aprendizaje - SENA para mitigación de incumplimientos normativos
    (Fundación Universitaria Los Libertadores. Sede Bogotá., ) Ayala Alfonso, Yésica Patricia; Durán Ramírez,Julio Mario; González Martínez., Edwin Fernando
    The National Learning Service - SENA receives Petitions, Complaints, Claims, Suggestions, Denunciations, Acknowledgments, Congratulations and Guardianship Actions (PQRS) that must be managed to guarantee a timely response to citizens who request the solution to their requirement; additionally, it must ensure the follow-up and compliance with the regulations that regulate the management of PQRS in Colombia, as well as automating processes that are currently carried out manually. For this reason, the purpose of this project is to analyze with Machine Learning models the PQRS received by SENA, which allow mitigating the risk of materializing regulatory breaches and manage to resolve the PQRS in a timely manner for the public. For this, the SEMMA methodology is used, being the more appropriate for the analysis of large databases. It should be noted that language tools were used of Python and R programming to execute and apply the analysis of the PQRS, obtaining conclusive results and satisfactory about the Machine Learning models chosen to predict the possible violation of rights of citizenship; therefore, with these results, it is considered necessary to suggest the implementation of the models executed before SENA.
  • Miniatura
    Ítem
    Reducción de tiempos de ejecución en el proceso de calibración en un laboratorio de metrología a partir de un modelo predictivo
    (Fundación Universitaria Los Libertadores. Sede Bogotá., ) Castro Rodríguez, Ever Daniel; González Veloza, José John Fredy
    The calibration of measuring instruments in a metrology laboratory is essential, but it can be affected due to internal processes that delay activities. This research proposes a predictive model to reduce the execution times, improve resource allocation and provide a more efficient service. learning was used automatic and cross validation to train the model with historical data. The implementation of the model achieved a average reduction of 30% in execution times, improving the performance of human resources, development of activities and customer satisfaction. This research supports the importance of predictive technology in metrology to improve efficiency and quality of service.
  • Miniatura
    Ítem
    Clasificación de variables que representan mayor impacto al incumplirse al momento de otorgar cartera de microcréditos
    (Fundación Universitaria Los Libertadores. Sede Bogotá., ) Herrera Carranza, Gamaliel; González Veloza, José John Fredy
    The granting of credit products in the Colombian financial market, specifically in the microcredit lines, implies a higher level of risk, taking into account the nature of the profile of the clients to whom these products are granted, who are mostly people with high levels of vulnerability, little or minimal credit experience and marked informality in the development of their economic activities, therefore It is important to identify which credit policies are more relevant when the client deteriorates or does not pay timely the value of the installments corresponding to the disbursed credits. That is why it is considered pertinent to carry out an analysis of the variables (credit policies) that are evaluated during the analysis process and approval of credit applications, since it has been identified that those customers who have incurred in arrears, did not initially comply with any of the credit policies that should be considered for approval of credit. So, according to the results of the analysis, it is considered important to integrate into the methodology evaluation, analysis and granting, some adjustments to the level of demand in compliance with the policies that generate a greater impact or possibly explain non-payment by customers, such as example: control the amount of the disbursement, exclude or request greater guarantees from clients who carry out activities companies that showed a bad payment habit, with which they can improve their portfolio quality indicators.