Examinando por Autor "Velandia Rey, Lida"
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- ÍtemAnálisis estadístico casos de dengue por mosquitos vector (Aedes aegypti)) con relación a la variable climática precipitación en zonas tropicales como el municipio de Ricaurte, Cundinamarca mediante series temporales multivariantes(Fundación Universitaria Los Libertadores. Sede Bogotá., ) Velandia Rey, Lida; Sandoval Rodriguez, WilsonIn times of abundant rainfall, caused by the variations of climate change, the probability of breeding sites for the vector Aedes aegypti mosquito increases, causing a public health problem in tropical regions. The objective of this study is to describe the relationship between the precipitation variable in the development of dengue transmission in tropical areas such as the municipality of Ricaurte, Cundinamarca and to predict increases in the incidence of this disease through multivariate series. Databases from 2008 to 2017 were used, based on a methodology inspired by Cross-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM)), to estimate the incidence of average monthly precipitation in reported cases of dengue Análisis estadístico casos de dengue por mosquitos vector (Aedes aegypti)) con relación a la variable climática precipitación en zonas tropicales como el municipio de Ricaurte, Cundinamarca mediante series temporales multivariantes infections, using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model with an exogenous variable, performing the Ljung-Box autocorrelation test (p-value>0.05), normality test based on bias and kurtosis. Jarque Bera (p-value<0.05), Runs randomness test (p-value>0.05), and BIC (602.08). In addition, the cross-correlation function (CCF) was applied, it was verified with the LjungBox autocorrelation test (p-value>0.05), normality test based on bias and kurtosis. Jarque Bera (p-value <0.05) and BIC (603.19). Finally, a model was developed that helps predict the transmission behavior of dengue, which is affected by precipitation in millimeters (mm), for the municipality of Ricaurte, Cundinamarca.