Examinando por Autor "Sanchez Hernandez, Julian Mateo"
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- ÍtemPronóstico de un indicador de acciones bélicas en Colombia a partir de análisis de series de tiempo(Fundación Universitaria Los Libertadores. Sede Bogotá., ) Sanchez Hernandez, Julian Mateo; González Veloza, José John FredyThe armed conflict in Colombia summarizes all kinds of challenges for the academy, this article aims to address these problems from an interdisciplinary perspective, building an indicator of intensity of violence based on three variables of the armed conflict that were treated through optimal quantification, converting them into quantitative ones. This indicator was analyzed with the ARIMA method. This indicator underwent its construction from the optimal quantification of three variables that refer to the intensity of the conflict and the impact on the vulnerable population, grouping the data semi-annually with data from 1995, in such a way, the construction of a model, the analysis of the precision or validation metrics and the forecast of the conflict intensity indicator for the following semesters.