Examinando por Autor "Ramírez García, Priscila"
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- ÍtemPropuesta de un modelo predictivo para el VIH-SIDA en la ciudad de Medellín para el periodo 2008- 2017(Fundación Universitaria Los Libertadores. Sede Bogotá., ) Ramírez García, Priscila; Lozano Forero, SebastienHIV-AIDS has become over the years an event of interest in Public Health worldwide that affects a large number of the population and which requires the implementation of effective programs at the local and global level for its care, mitigation and prevention. Thus, it is of interest to be able to have information that allows a greater knowledge of the behavior of this phenomenon at the local level for making more accurate decisions and making use of statistical tools. The main of this degree work is to propose a prognosis model of HIV-AIDS cases for the city of Medellín, period based on the data obtained in 2008-2017, addressing the Box Jenkins statistical methodology under an ARIMA, the which will be useful to learn more about the problem and how the actions that are being carried out in the present will be able to impact in the future. The most important conclusion is the obtaining of an ARIMA model with adjusted parameters for the prediction of said event of interest in public health.