Examinando por Autor "Pedraza Hernández, Cristian Julián"
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- ÍtemPronostico del consumo de los hogares en Colombia mediante el uso de tarjetas débito y crédito(Fundación Universitaria Los Libertadores. Sede Bogotá., ) Gallor Linares, Luisa Manuela; Pedraza Hernández, Cristian Julián; Lozano Forero, SebastienThis work aims to propose a statistical model to forecasting the Household Consumption in Colombia taking into account the money amounts for transactions in Debit and Credit Cards as exogenous variables. In addition, it seeks to describe how the crisis caused by COVID-19 impacted each of the variables to work on. For this analysis, are studied the economic theories of consumption proposed mainly by Keynes, Fisher and Friedman, to understand how the individuals decide in what way and in what quantity to consume. Likewise, it seeks to understand how households leverage their consumption, if it is through the use of their income and current savings, or if they leverage short-term consumer loans. In this way, intervention models are proposed for each of the variables, understanding the impact of Covid-19 and in the case of the Cards variables, proposed an ARIMA forecast model. In the case of the Household Consumption variable, a SARIMAX model is proposed, which takes into account the forecast of the intervened variables of Debit and Credit Cards.