Examinando por Autor "Macías Bohórquez, Ricardo"
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- ÍtemContraste de pronósticos de ventas de plaguicidas para una empresa del sector agroquímico en la región Latinoamérica norte para el año 2017Aristizábal Uchima, Harold; Macías Bohórquez, Ricardo; Santana Contreras, Juan CamiloThe time series method has been often used to do forecast in different topics, especially economic topics. One of the most important uses is to support the planning area in all kind of companies and thus achieve anticipation. In this research different models were generated to contrast the inside forecast to company and the forecast generated with statistics methodology. The data have information about agrochemical sales in Latino American countries by a multinational company, since January of 2012 until December of 2016. In the analysis section it was found that all time series had seasonality and for that reason all the models were SARIMA, in some cases outliers were included to these models, and it was generated a forecast to 2017. Finally, it was concluded that statistical forecast models have more precision. but companies cannot rule out empirical knowledge in generating them.