Examinando por Autor "Gutierrez Rojas, Yeison"
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- ÍtemEstimación de pronosticos de caudales del río magdalena a la altura del municipio de el banco, departamento del magdalena(Fundación Universitaria Los Libertadores. Sede Bogotá., ) Gutierrez Rojas, Yeison; Sandoval Rodriguez, WilsonMagdalena River is the most important in Colombia, with an extension of 1540 Km, of which 886 Km are navigable, its bases represents 24% of the country's surface, with an average flow of 7100 m3 /s. This river borders the western limit of Magdalena department and feed 185 water body such us swamps, lagoons of Magdalena department that depends on flow of river water. These water bodies are natural sources that drives the economic, productive, environmental and cultural development of 17 municipalities of department. The aim of this work was to estimate the forecast of the Magdalena river flow for the year 2021 at the height of the municipality of the Banco, through the application of a SARIMA model taking the average flow data of the Limnigraphic station 25027020 of the IDEAM since January 1990 until December 2019, validated with data observed from the year 2020. The results showed a seasonal behavior or periodicity with an average of 3888 m3 / s. The series decomposition was marked by a polynomial trend. The Dicky-Fluller and Phillips-Ferron tests (0.01 and 0.01) indicated seasonality on the difference series with a regular and a seasonal period. From the simple and partial autocorrelations, 18 possible models were obtained. The originated BIC identified the model (0, 1, 2, and 0, 1, 1) as the optimum with 5418.7. The p-value of the Lung-Box test was 0.1534, which indicated no serial correlation in the residuals. The Jarque-Bera test with a p-value of 0.6146 is taken as a non-Gaussian white noise. The validation of the model highlighted that the entire model is in the 80 and 95% confidence bands, and is adjusted according to the data reported for the year 2020