Examinando por Autor "Guevara Bernal, Irma Andrea"
Mostrando 1 - 1 de 1
Resultados por página
Opciones de ordenación
- ÍtemPronóstico de la relación entre tasa de subempleo subjetivo por competencias y la tasa desempleo en Colombia entre enero del 2010 hasta diciembre de 2018 mediante un modelo ARIMAX de series de tiempo.(Fundación Universitaria Los Libertadores. Sede Bogotá., ) Guevara Bernal, Irma Andrea; Guevara Bernal, Nidia Milena; Lozano Forero, SebastiénThis work seeks to consolidate a forecast model that allows predicting the behavior of the subjective underemployment rate by competencies in Colombia, using the unemployment rate as an exogenous variable. It is found that both variables have a correlation, mostly negative, and that the rate of subjective underemployment by competencies has been historically high. The above suggests that public policies in labor matters have failed to generate quality employment, while there is a disarticulation between the skills and needs of the demand and the supply of work. Under the Box-Jenkins methodology, it is found that the best model to evaluate this objective is an ARIMAX(16,1,1), which corroborates the influence of the unemployment rate on the subjective underemployment rate by competencies, passing the validation tests. However, it is concluded that although the unemployment rate is relevant to understand the behavior of the subjective underemployment rate by competencies, it is not sufficient to generate an accurate forecast and, it is necessary to include variables of greater influence in future studies to achieve it.