Examinando por Autor "González Sanclemente, Janier Emir"
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- ÍtemAnálisis de series temporales de precipitación (1990- 2021) en el municipio de Quibdó, departamento Chocó. Usando modelado SARIMA(Fundación Universitaria Los Libertadores. Sede Bogotá., ) González Sanclemente, Janier Emir; Sandoval Rodríguez, WilsonAim. Analyze time series of precipitation between 1990 and 2021 in the municipality of Quibdó, located in the department of Chocó using modeling SARIMA that allows to make a forecast on the precipitations in the municipality. Materials and methods. For the purposes of this study, the precipitation data, from the meteorological station of the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM) located at the El Caraño airport of Quibdó, from January 1990 to December 2021, it was reviewed if the precipitation presents incomplete data. It was verified if the series has any trend. For the which a forecast was made by fitting a Seasonal Autoregressive Moving model Average, SARIMA, this was done using the R program (R Core Team 2014). Results. The results suggest that the precipitation does not present a trend, while its variance is unequivocally increasing, a SARIMA model (0 ,0 ,9 ) x (0 , 1 , 1)12. Conclusion. The time series of Monthly precipitation exhibits a stationary trend relative to time. The annual variance for precipitation has not changed for the studied series and model SARIMA obtained is appropriate for the series studied and a prognosis was made for a period of 12 months