Pronóstico de la cantidad de estudiantes que se matriculan en los espacios académicos con mayor demanda en el programa de ingeniería industrial de la fundación universitaria los libertadores

Abstract

The time series acquire a special attention in the different academic programmes since through them it is possible to understand the dynamics of potential students enrolled in these spaces. This article proposes the use of the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing method to estimate the number of students enrolled in the academic spaces offered by the Fundación Universitaria Los Libertadores so that the institution can have a better projection of the human, physical and technological resources that it will make available to its students. The results obtained for the ten subjects with the highest number of students enrolled in the period between 2015-1 and 2021-2 present a mean absolute error (MAE) of 14,85% and a p-value of 0.08 under the Shapiro-Wilks test. Despite the level of error in the calculations made, Holt-Winters is a very useful method because it allows greater importance to be given to the most recent data, where significant changes may be implicit, and less to historical data because of its low validity.