Autocorrelación espacial y modelamiento predictivo de casos de COVID-19 en Bogotá, Colombia

Abstract

Since December 2019, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has represented a challenge for the governments of the world once it demanded a balance between epidemiological control strategies and infrastructures, guarantee of economic well-being as well as for the administration of health services. routine health.1 COVID-19 is transmitted by direct and indirect contact (fomites) with contaminated droplets or by aerosols, the latter being the main route and the most difficult to contain.2,3 Environmental factors such as particulate matter (PM in English particulate matter), with adverse effects on human health, 4,5 favor the spread by aerosols and increased mortality from COVID-19. 6–8 Particulate matter, classified in PM10 and PM2 .5 in accordance with its aerodynamic diameter, it serves as a protector and transport; induces damage to pneumocytes and overexpression of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 that facilitates the entry of the coronavirus. morbidity and mortality from COVID-19.9