Modelación de series temporales de precio internacional del oro y producción de oro en Colombia para la generación de pronósticos

Abstract

In this report it is proposed to model the time series of international price of gold in dollars and annual gold production in Colombia, through Box methodologies Jenkins and Exponential Smoothing in order to generate forecasts of these series with the validated models, in turn comparisons of the results of both series are established Temporary It should be taken into account that the exploration, exploitation and gold benefit projects, they come into dependence with the investment expectations and future prices of the precious metal. Understanding these models and settings allows to know the behavior of those time series, because of the importance of the gold standard in the economy, and in the case Colombian because the exploitation and commercialization of gold in the regions, more than a source of wealth, it has become a factor of violence and illegal activities throughout its chain.