Pronóstico del hurto de bicicletas en Bogotá durante la ciclovía forecast of bicycle theft in Bogotá during the cycleway

Abstract

This article explores the phenomenon of bicycle theft in Bogotá, and focuses on Sunday, in which the majority of citizens use the bicycle recreationally, taking advantage of the space of the Cicleway, which is monitored by police authorities and of the district, where in some way they try to convey a sense of security and trust, however, robberies continue to occur. The study generates a forecast of bicycle thefts during Sunday from 2 6:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m., a period that includes the recreational Cicleway, which takes place from 7:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m., and was developed through a time series analysis with the help of the SARIMA model, showing a forecast of robberies that will occur in the next two (2) years and that presents a level of error of 53%. The database shows the reports of monthly bicycle thefts that occurred between the years 2012 and 2021 in Bogotá during the day Sunday from 6:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. (source District Secretariat for Security, Coexistence and Justice). The forecast of future thefts is aimed at contributing to the theoretical literature on bicycle thefts, crime patterns and strategies to spread the risks and factors that may facilitate bicycle theft, during the course of the Cicleway and in the hours before and after the event. its realization.