Modelos estadísticos para el pronóstico de las regalías producto de la extracción de minerales en Colombia

Abstract

The mining activity contributes to the country of Colombia about $5 billion annually in taxes and royalties, product of the exploitation of minerals such as gold and coal in underground mines. This study aims to forecast the production of minerals and productive prospects for exploratory development and royalties that the extractive departments of the country will be able to enjoy over time, emphasizing coal extraction. Therefore, a historical analysis is carried out supported by a database provided by the National Mining Agency (ANM) overlapping with a database from the Mining-Energy Planning Unit (UPME), with a sample size (n=45215), and subsequently represented in two of the departments with the greatest impact and interest for the present analysis (Cesar and La Guajira), through different statistical tools of a descriptive – analytical type (SARIMA et SARIMAX.) that contributed in the identification and modeling on an adequate forecast related to the exploration, production and royalties of coal extraction in the proposed departments, so that the analysis can be replicated under other circumstances.