Análisis de impacto del comercio exterior con chile 1990-2017: una aproximación desde el matriz insumo producto

Abstract

The objective of the document is to determine the impact of foreign trade on the Colombian economy from a simulation exercise with the symmetric product input matrix of the Colombian economy to 61 sectors with basic prices, product by product, for the year 2010. It is taken as a starting hypothesis that the commercial effect is positive and under this logic a hypothetical (or counterfactual) scenario was proposed, which assumes the behavior of the Colombian economy without trade (exports and imports) with Chile over the productive mesh and was compared with the situation of the country with the country's trade. Among the main conclusions is the growth of the trade balance achieved by Chile through the specialization of its production lines and the economic linkage that has been achieved from Colombia with other countries in the region, specifically Chile, where it has found a commercial partner strategic according to the projection in commercial growth that Colombia intends to achieve; the bilateral analysis carried out aims to show the benefits of trade between both countries and the deficit to which they could submit if they do not have this important commercial partner.