Estudio de la inflación en educación superior a partir del índice ICES y su relación con algunos factores de demanda en Colombia

Abstract

The purpose of this work has been to carry out a statistical study of time series on inflation in higher education, based on the ICES Index and the relationship with some demand factors in Colombia in the period 1998-2017. It is based on economic theory related to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Higher Education Costs Index and the time series econometric theory. The study makes a quantitative analysis, with a descriptive depth, observational research design, non-experimental longitudinal type. Primary sources of information provided by the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) were used. The time series were: ICES period 1998-2017, and the IPC time series transformed semiannually. The data was processed with the statistical program R, the results were compared with the theoretical framework. It was concluded that the variables that most influence the costs of HEIs are Personnel Expenses, followed by Expenses for goods and services and finally the CPI. Likewise, the best prediction model was the ARIMAX (1,1,0) plus exogenous variables, which maximized the effectiveness of the forecast model. Finally, although there is a slowdown in growth in the university education sector, the costs exceed and exceed the purchasing power of the majority of the Colombian population.